콜드 스타트 이론

Andrew Chen이 The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effect에서 소개하는 네트워크 효과에 대한 이론.

3장 “Chold Start Theory” 중에서

Cold Start Theory lays out a series of stages that every product team must traverse to fully harness the power of network effects. … There are five primary stages:

1. The Cold Start Problem
2. Tipping Point
3. Escape Velocity
4. Hitting the Ceiling
5. The Moat

The Cold Start Problem

Atomic network:

From these case studies, I describe an approach that focuses on building an “atomic network”—that is, the smallest possible network that is stable and can grow on its own. For example, Zoom’s videoconferencing network can work with just two people, whereas Airbnb’s requires hundreds of active rental listings in a market to become stable. I look at the product idea at the heart of every network effect, and the similarities many startups have used to pick its features. I also ask, who are the first, most important users to get onto a nascent network, and why? And how do you seed the initial network so that it grows in the way you want?

Tipping Point

Luckily, an important dynamic kicks in: as a network grows, each new network starts to tip faster and faster, so that the entire market is more easily captured. This is the second phase of the framework, the Tipping Point.

Escape Velocity

When a company like Dropbox, Slack, or Uber hits scale, it might seem like network effects kick in, and the next phase is easy. But it’s not—to the contrary, this is when technology companies start to hire thousands of people, launch a series of ambitious new projects, and try to continue the product’s rapid trajectory. The Escape Velocity stage is all about working furiously to strengthen network effects and to sustain growth.

This is where the classical definition of a “network effect” is wrong. I redefine it so that it’s not one singular effect, but rather, three distinct, underlying forces: the Acquisition Effect, which lets products tap into the network to drive low-cost, highly efficient user acquisition via viral growth; the Engagement Effect, which increases interaction between users as networks fill in; and finally, the Economic Effect, which improves monetization levels and conversion rates as the network grows.

Three forces:

• Acquisition Effect is powered by viral growth.
• Engagement Effect manifests itself by increase engagement as the network grows - this can be developed further by conceptually moving users up the “engagement ladder.” This is done by introducing people to new use cases via incentives, marketing/communications, and new product features.
• Economic Effect can be improved over time as well, by increasing conversions in key monetization flows and ramping up revenue per user, as the network grows.

Hitting the Ceiling

Ceiling of the growth:

In many narratives about network effects, by the time a product has hit the Tipping Point, that’s the fairy-tale ending of the company - it’s won. Ask the operators inside a company, though, and you’ll hear a different story: a rapidly growing network wants to both grow as well as tear itself apart, and there are enormous forces in both directions.

This is when a network “hits the ceiling,” and growth stalls. … In the real world, products tend to grow rapidly, then hit a ceiling, then as the team addresses the problems, another growth spurt emerges. Then follows another ceiling. Then another cycle after that, each one often successively getting more complex to address over time as the problems become more fundamental.

The Moat

The final stage:

The final stage of the framework focuses on using network effects to fend off competitors, which is often the focus as the network and product matures. While it is not the only moat - brand, technology, partnerships, and others can help - it is one of the most important ones in the technology sector. …

Because all products in a category likely have the same type of network effects, competition ends up being asymmetrical while leveraging the same forces. A larger network and a smaller network in any given market have distinctly different strategies—think of it as a David strategy versus a Goliath strategy. The upstart has to pick off niche segments within a larger network, and build atomic networks that are highly defensible with key product features, and, when applicable, better economics and engagement. The incumbent, on the other hand, uses its larger size to drive higher monetization and value for its top users, and fast-following any niches that seem to be growing quickly.